Rainbow Alliance, here we come

[drplokta]

This looks choreographed. Brown steps down now, and Clegg will probably announce this evening or tomorrow morning that no deal is possible with the Tories, because they are not prepared to act in the best interests of the UK by giving the people a referendum on a fairer voting system. This will open the way for a progressive coalition to push through a referendum, and promise a new election once the voting system has been fixed, without the LibDems being tainted by Brown's high level of unpopularity.

Comments

[drplokta]

It's difficult presentationally, because the Tories got the most votes and seats -- albeit only because the progressive vote is split between Labour, LibDem and Green (and some Welsh/Scottish/Irish nationalist parties) while the other reactionary parties -- UKIP, English Democrats, etc. -- are too crap to take many votes or any seats.

It's also going to be very unstable, with a coalition of half a dozen parties needed to eke out a wafer-thin majority. There's no chance of such an alliance holding together for four or five years -- it will be lucky to last long enough for a referendum on the voting system this autumn followed by a spring election in 2011.

[nojay.livejournal.com]

The SNP will want a referendum on full independence if they are going to be part of this alliance. Unless the referendum's wording can be rigged by the Labour leadership (in which case the SNP cry foul, bail, vote of no-confidence, Government falls) and the Scots say "yes" the Labour Party loses fifty or sixty safe Scottish Labour seats, condemning the resulting rump English Labour Party to perpetual LibDem minority party status, in which case their best bet would be to enthusiastically embrace proportional representation.

Plaid Cymru also want the same as the SNP but they could maybe be bought off by a reduction in the forthcoming government spending cuts in Wales which would piss off a lot of the rest of the UK's MPs.

As an aside, I see Gordon Brown's announcement today as him saying "I'm going to jump so there's no need to push me." If he had tried to stick it out he'd have been given the elbow by the Party a lot sooner and in a much nastier fashion. He's going to stay Leader (and maybe PM) until September now.

[surliminal.livejournal.com]

Thay already named their price in ££s I think. Sure I saw that somewhere.
No way Lab would ever hand independence - it's all that stops WEstminster being ruled forever by the Tiries like the White Witch in Narnia.

[del-c.livejournal.com]

Why "forever"? The Tories get in, then they get voted out the first general election that their support falls low enough. As long as Scotland is in the UK, that's always a tipping point that occurs for the UK as a whole a little before it occurs for England, which means the Tories never appear to lose England when they lose the election. But that's like saying lost things are always found in the last place you look.