Rainbow Alliance, here we come

[drplokta]

This looks choreographed. Brown steps down now, and Clegg will probably announce this evening or tomorrow morning that no deal is possible with the Tories, because they are not prepared to act in the best interests of the UK by giving the people a referendum on a fairer voting system. This will open the way for a progressive coalition to push through a referendum, and promise a new election once the voting system has been fixed, without the LibDems being tainted by Brown's high level of unpopularity.

Comments

[seph-hazard.livejournal.com]

That sounds like the best outcome, actually [grin]

[ms-cataclysm.livejournal.com]

I'd agree and suspect Brown has deferred his resignation until today so that he has a little extra to throw in to the negotiation melting pot. Before everyone rushes to celebrate do remember that we could end up with Ed Balls as PM instead although David Miliband appears to be the early bookies favourite. At least Ladbrokes and William Hill will be happy.

The BBC news comments on the runners are a little eccentric -Alan Johnson, 59,is seen as a caretaker candidate while Harriet Harman (also 59) is seen as a candidate in her own right.

[surliminal.livejournal.com]

Apparently Balls imposs because he can't be PM while in a 1000 vote marginal - too much danger of instability since they're negotiating for a full 5 year term they say. he must be gutted.

[surliminal.livejournal.com]

Well HH is Deputy leader.

[cuboid-ursinoid.livejournal.com]

How cynical of you Mike! As if our noble, upstanding politicians would do something like that!

[apostle-of-eris.livejournal.com]

With my insignificant grasp of the nuances and fine details, this sounds like the optimal outcome.
I don't really understand why some sort of Labor-LibDem coalition isn't the obvious way to go. Or is "New Labor" that Tory-l\i\g\h\t\like?

[drplokta]

It's difficult presentationally, because the Tories got the most votes and seats -- albeit only because the progressive vote is split between Labour, LibDem and Green (and some Welsh/Scottish/Irish nationalist parties) while the other reactionary parties -- UKIP, English Democrats, etc. -- are too crap to take many votes or any seats.

It's also going to be very unstable, with a coalition of half a dozen parties needed to eke out a wafer-thin majority. There's no chance of such an alliance holding together for four or five years -- it will be lucky to last long enough for a referendum on the voting system this autumn followed by a spring election in 2011.

[nojay.livejournal.com]

The SNP will want a referendum on full independence if they are going to be part of this alliance. Unless the referendum's wording can be rigged by the Labour leadership (in which case the SNP cry foul, bail, vote of no-confidence, Government falls) and the Scots say "yes" the Labour Party loses fifty or sixty safe Scottish Labour seats, condemning the resulting rump English Labour Party to perpetual LibDem minority party status, in which case their best bet would be to enthusiastically embrace proportional representation.

Plaid Cymru also want the same as the SNP but they could maybe be bought off by a reduction in the forthcoming government spending cuts in Wales which would piss off a lot of the rest of the UK's MPs.

As an aside, I see Gordon Brown's announcement today as him saying "I'm going to jump so there's no need to push me." If he had tried to stick it out he'd have been given the elbow by the Party a lot sooner and in a much nastier fashion. He's going to stay Leader (and maybe PM) until September now.

[surliminal.livejournal.com]

Thay already named their price in ££s I think. Sure I saw that somewhere.
No way Lab would ever hand independence - it's all that stops WEstminster being ruled forever by the Tiries like the White Witch in Narnia.

[del-c.livejournal.com]

Why "forever"? The Tories get in, then they get voted out the first general election that their support falls low enough. As long as Scotland is in the UK, that's always a tipping point that occurs for the UK as a whole a little before it occurs for England, which means the Tories never appear to lose England when they lose the election. But that's like saying lost things are always found in the last place you look.

[bohemiancoast.livejournal.com]

Indeed. The more charitable explanation is that when Brown and Mandelson left Downing St this morning refusing to tell the BBC where they were going, they were going to a meeting of the Cabinet where Brown was handed a Bible, a bottle of whisky and a gun.

[surliminal.livejournal.com]

*splutter*

Honestly, I've got heartburn. It's like watching a rather good Bruce Willis movie. I was honestly convinced when Hague came out the last time he was going to say it was a done deal. Clergg is either brilliant or a complete bastard - let's admit (by all the LJ polls) none of us lot saw this as possible two days ago.

[fjm.livejournal.com]

I couldn't (and still can't) see how Clegg can keep the liberals together in an alliance with the Tories. I thought minority government was a possibility.

[jamesb.livejournal.com]

could be, but am not prepared to commit. Coalition governments are pretty normal back home, and horse trading can go on, quite a bit, also this could be a gambit to get the tories to move on PR.

meanwhile, many scottish MP's will spit fire, if they require the SNP to support them.

[drplokta]

They don't need the SNP, if they get Plaid Cymru, Green, SDLP, Alliance and the Independent Unionist on board. That would give them 324 seats, and they need 323 (because Sinn Fein aren't taking up their seats).

[akicif.livejournal.com]

Fairly sure I saw something positive from Salmond earlier, but it's gone off the BBC page I was following.

But I'm worried that there would be one heck of a media campaign against PR, and we'd end up six months later no better off and with the prospect of a Tory victory in the next election.

On the other hand, it's got to be worth a shot, at least.

[ms-cataclysm.livejournal.com]

I understand that SDLP take the Labour whip already and Plaid Cymru describe themselves as a party of the left. But I'm not so sure what the other three will do. Aren't Unionists normally Conservative ?

[drplokta]

The Independent Unionist is independent because she left the DUP when they decided to take the Tory whip, and has indicated she will support Labour.

[akicif.livejournal.com]

For values of DUP equal to UUP, surely? UUP went for the UCUNF (I'm not making this up: Ulster Conservatives and Unionists - New Force) option, and the DUP actually endorsed Lady Sylvia (her maiden name may have been Paisley, but I don't think she's any relation).

ETA: I believe the DUP are currently leaning more to the Labour side, too - this may be because they've been offered at least maintenance of the current financial deal, as opposed to cuts under Cameron et al.

[surliminal.livejournal.com]

But SNP already said clearly they wanted this. Even before Brown resigned.

Strange start for the Green Party in Westminster... tainted love..

[nuttyxander.livejournal.com]

And certain Scottish MPs will spit fire if they go beyond AV, namely David Cairns and Tom Harris.

[surliminal.livejournal.com]

It does, doesn't it. In a strange kinda way (because it ISN'T how LDs are MEANT to behave :-), I really take my hat off to Clegg. He should write spy novels when he retires (as outgoing PM, no doubt, at this rate..)

I note loveandgarbage's comment that he started life as a professional negotiator :-)

best Twitter comment: if things go on this way, Clegg will have PR, Foreign Minister, no Trident, £350 cashback and Ed Balls in a mankini.

[apostle-of-eris.livejournal.com]

OK, I may understand the nuances even less than I thought, which is extreme, but it still sounds like the Kabuki appears to be moving toward a real-world optimal outcome.