Mar. 12th, 2015 12:31 pm
drplokta: (Default)
[personal profile] drplokta
Just to observe that the latest forecast on ElectionForecast.co.uk is for 295 Conservative MPs and 24 Liberal Democrats, a total of 319, which is enough for the Coalition to stay in power with DUP support. At least until they lose a few seats in by-elections. It seems that the Tories have been picking up a bit in the polls recently. (Broken down by seat the results are slightly different and give the current coaltion parties as many 322 seats, which means that they could get a majority by adding UKIP's one MP, given that Sinn Fein's abstentionism means that 323 MPs is an effective majority.)

(no subject)

Date: 2015-03-12 01:19 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vicarage.livejournal.com
Are the SNP's demands so unreasonable that Labour wouldn't go into coalition with them? If they did and had 309 combined, would the LDs really choose the Tories again? Even on the 'case-by-case' basis Sturgeon talks about would allow a tri-party to in strong control. Scottish independence implemented by the SNP after the No vote would be nasty, but do most care enough to want to keep the Tories in?
Edited Date: 2015-03-12 01:26 pm (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 2015-03-12 04:34 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vicarage.livejournal.com
I don't mind the biggest party being asked first to form the government. But if they have no mates, and can't establish a coalition, then the second biggest party can have a go. The LDs merely need to wait to be asked a second time, and still have power, but with a better outlook

(no subject)

Date: 2015-03-12 10:15 pm (UTC)
andrewducker: (Default)
From: [personal profile] andrewducker
The LibDems would agree with you:

The Liberal Democrats could join up with "any other coalition partner" after the next general election, the party's justice minister has said.

Simon Hughes said his party would negotiate with the largest party first.

So they would talk to the Conservatives first, but that doesn't mean having to make a deal with them.

(no subject)

Date: 2015-03-12 02:34 pm (UTC)
ext_52412: (Default)
From: [identity profile] feorag.livejournal.com
DUP have already said they won't do that.

(no subject)

Date: 2015-03-12 02:58 pm (UTC)
nwhyte: (ni)
From: [personal profile] nwhyte
Nigel Dodds laid out the price in yesteday's Guardian - 2% defence spending, scrap the bedroom tax and firmer border security. Both Tories and Labour could credibly deliver on that.

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