Coalition Arithmetic

[drplokta]

The winning post is actually 323 MPs, not 326, since the five Sinn Fein MPs won't take up their seats, leaving the Commons at 644 MPs plus the Speaker. We're still waiting on Thirsk & Malton which has been delayed by three weeks due to the death of a candidate, but it's a Conservative safe seat so I shall count it for the Tories.

The only two-party coalitions that work are Conservative + LibDem (364 MPs -- pretty likely end result) or Conservative + Labour (565 MPs -- essentially a government of national unity, and not very likely).

An entirely right-wing coalition seems unlikely. The Conservatives and DUP together can only muster 315 MPs, and there aren't any likely candidates to provide the other eight votes. Maybe they could get the SNP and Plaid Cymru on board by offering pork for Scotland and Wales, but it would be very unstable.

A grand alliance of centre-left parties seems more likely, if the Conservatives and LibDems can't reach a deal. Labour + LibDem + SDLP + Independent Unionist + Green + Alliance Party -- that would be 321 MPs, and so would also need support from the SNP (or Sinn Fein, if they could be persuaded to take up their seats), but they're more likely to support a centre-left government than a Conservative minority government. I think Brown would have to go as part of the price for putting this together. I expect the smaller parties would not formally join the coalition, but simply agree to vote for the Queen's Speech and Budget.

In any case, I would give two years as the absolute maximum time before another general election, and I think another one this year is pretty likely.

Comments

[ceemage.livejournal.com]

In any case, I would give two years as the absolute maximum time before another general election, and I think another one this year is pretty likely.

My parting shot this morning, after spending two hours as the resident 'talking head' on 107 Spark FM's breakfast show was "See you all in October, then."

[surliminal.livejournal.com]

Spark FM? where's that based then??

So if a new election - that's death for Labour isn;t it? Because the Tories have a far bigger war chest left for campaigning. So the centre left parties really do have every incentive to try to hang it together.

[twinfair.livejournal.com]

Are you discounting the possibility of a Conservative minority government then?

I think the Liberals will not be thanked for forcing another general election immediately and so could abstain on the Queen's Speech and the Budget (in exchange for a few informal concessions) and Cameron will hope he can keep things together while the sweet things in his budget take effect. Then he will hope he can call an election before the bitter things hurt people. NOT what I WANT to happen, but what I think is quite likely.

[feorag.livejournal.com]

The SNP aren't a right-wing party, despite the name. They're centre left, with an annoying nannying tendency. They've had nothing to do with the Tories in Scotland (they're in a coalition with the LibDems) and no reason to believe they'd have anything to do with them elsewhere.

The only "pork" the Tories could offer Scotland that would interest the Nats is the sort that guarantees that the Tories have a permanent majority in what's left of the UK.

[surliminal.livejournal.com]

yes and that's why I don't understand why the Tories don't do it!! Although I don't want them to, I hasten to add.

[drplokta]

It's worth the Liberal Democrats' while to halve their support, if they can get proportional representation in exchange -- they'll get more MPs than they have now, and can then work on rebuilding their support. So they can afford to do some pretty unpopular things if they get a firm guarantee of a referendum on PR.

[andrewducker]

Yup, totally agree.

I'd vote Conservative if they were the only party offering PR - because once that happens we can have a more democratic vote the next time around.

[fjm.livejournal.com]

Pretty much my assessment. I also don't think Clegg could hold all of his party in alliance with the Conservatives for very long.

[kevin-standlee.livejournal.com]

I wonder if Clegg would be allowed what might be a compromise position on PR -- Instant Runoff/Alternative Voting (the "Hugo Awards" system). I take it that Labour and the LibDems use it for their party elections, so it's not as "impossibly complicated" as some might suggest. It's not full PR, but it would probably make it easier for the LibDems to win more seats in the areas where they and Labour are vote-splitting. The question is whether the Conservatives would be willing to budge at all, of course, since the current less-democratic system suits their own purposes just fine.

Or am I, from the US Left Coast, completely misreading things? I claim no special knowledge of UK politics. Personally, I was hoping that some sort of Labour-LibDem alliance could allow Lord Adonis to stick around as Transport Secretary, since he's done a world of good for rail. I figure that the Tories, given their druthers (unlikely in this precarious situation), would dust off the old "pave the railways" plans, especially if they thought it could raise lots of ready cash.

[drplokta]

The Labour manifesto included a referendum on using Alternative Vote for Westminster elections. The LibDems aren't keen, because it's not proportional, and it doesn't help them as much as you might think.