Election Predictions

[drplokta]

Anyone care to have a guess at the percentage breakdown of the national election result (excluding Northern Ireland constituencies)? No more new entries after 10pm on Thursday evening, which will be exactly a week before the polling stations close and we start to get exit polls. The winner will be the person who has the lowest total difference between their guess and the actual result. The smaller parties (SNP, Plaid Cymru, UKIP, BNP, Respect, etc.) are all bundled together under "Other". I recommend that your choices add up to 100%, but it's not compulsory.

My guess is Conservatives 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 25%, Other 10%. That would be a hung Parliament unless something very odd happens at the constituency level, with the Conservatives having a few more seats than Labour.

Comments

[hal-obrien.livejournal.com]

That appears to only result in the strong LibDem showing I allude to upthread.

This is a moving target. Here's his most recent projection, unlike my original pointer, which discussed a number of possibilities. (I keep including links to my sources in the naive hope readers will use them, despite all evidence otherwise. This leads to behavior like saying, "He doesn't seem to have considered..." when he did, it's just I didn't quote that part, because again, I had the hope one would click through if one was interested, and not rely solely on my {obviously} abridged representation of his position.)