Election Predictions

[drplokta]

Anyone care to have a guess at the percentage breakdown of the national election result (excluding Northern Ireland constituencies)? No more new entries after 10pm on Thursday evening, which will be exactly a week before the polling stations close and we start to get exit polls. The winner will be the person who has the lowest total difference between their guess and the actual result. The smaller parties (SNP, Plaid Cymru, UKIP, BNP, Respect, etc.) are all bundled together under "Other". I recommend that your choices add up to 100%, but it's not compulsory.

My guess is Conservatives 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 25%, Other 10%. That would be a hung Parliament unless something very odd happens at the constituency level, with the Conservatives having a few more seats than Labour.

Comments

[the-gardener.livejournal.com]

Has to be for votes cast, surely. The constituencies are so gerrymandered* that trying to derive seats actually won from votes cast is next to impossible.

* Which might be a good reason for supporting Cameron's claimed desire to reduce the number of MPs and even out the size of the constituencies, did one not suspect that he wishes to gerrymander them in his own way -- uniting chunks of cities which vote Labour with larger chunks of rural hinterland which vote Conservative*, etc. etc..

* A rural hinterland which even then thinks Margaret Thatcher was a bit of a communist. Bloody farmers.