Election Predictions

[drplokta]

Anyone care to have a guess at the percentage breakdown of the national election result (excluding Northern Ireland constituencies)? No more new entries after 10pm on Thursday evening, which will be exactly a week before the polling stations close and we start to get exit polls. The winner will be the person who has the lowest total difference between their guess and the actual result. The smaller parties (SNP, Plaid Cymru, UKIP, BNP, Respect, etc.) are all bundled together under "Other". I recommend that your choices add up to 100%, but it's not compulsory.

My guess is Conservatives 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 25%, Other 10%. That would be a hung Parliament unless something very odd happens at the constituency level, with the Conservatives having a few more seats than Labour.

Comments

[the-gardener.livejournal.com]

I'm not prepared to give percentages at this point, but I expect the Lib Dems to sink back as Der Tag approaches, and Labour to recover slightly....but not enough to prevent the Conservatives emerging as the largest party. The Tories may not have an overall majority, but if they can stitch up some agreement with the Northern Ireland parties (who historically are closer to the Tories than anyone else) I expect them to be forming our next government in the week commencing 10 May.