Election Predictions

[drplokta]

Anyone care to have a guess at the percentage breakdown of the national election result (excluding Northern Ireland constituencies)? No more new entries after 10pm on Thursday evening, which will be exactly a week before the polling stations close and we start to get exit polls. The winner will be the person who has the lowest total difference between their guess and the actual result. The smaller parties (SNP, Plaid Cymru, UKIP, BNP, Respect, etc.) are all bundled together under "Other". I recommend that your choices add up to 100%, but it's not compulsory.

My guess is Conservatives 36%, Labour 29%, Lib Dems 25%, Other 10%. That would be a hung Parliament unless something very odd happens at the constituency level, with the Conservatives having a few more seats than Labour.

Comments

[andrewducker]

I take it you mean overall share of the vote, not of the seats?

In that case:
Con: 35%, Labour: 30%, LD: 26%, Other: 9%

Not dramatically different to you. I expect Lab/Con to get a small boost over current polling, but not much.

[megamole.livejournal.com]

Indeed. Would be very interesting to see comparison of overall voting % to seats won. I'm convinced we need reform of the system, but am not a fan of pure PR.

[andrewducker]

You can have a play with the Seat Calculator here, although it's obviously only an estimate.

[evil-mogwai.livejournal.com]

The seat calculator suggests that the Lib Dems would need 40% to get 243 seats when Labour would only need 24.4% and the Conservatives 30.3%!

IS our system really that broken?

[drplokta]

Yes, it really is. It favours parties who have regional concentrations of strength -- the LidDems do badly, because they perform at similar levels everywhere.

[andrewducker]

Sadly...