EU Treaties

[drplokta]

Whatever one may think of David Cameron, on this occasion he is being blamed unjustly. There was no way he could accept a treaty change that in any way transferred additional powers to the EU, having previously pledged a referendum on any such change. In the current mood, we could have a referendum on whether or not the EU should give every UK citizen £1,000, paid for by the Bundesbank, and it would still fail because it has the letters "EU" in it.

In any case, the treaty has little chance of actually happening, because other countries will fail to ratify it. Just for example, Ireland will have to have a referendum, and there seems little chance of the Irish people voting to give Brussels or Berlin veto powers over the Irish budget.

Comments

[bart-calendar.livejournal.com]

By this time next year I'll be paying my rent in Francs instead of Euros.

[fjm.livejournal.com]

I agree, but unfortunately it also shows the weakness of the veto in the public eye.

[http://users.livejournal.com/la_marquise_de_/]

Yes, this.
Plus, y'know, better Brussels than Washington -- I have not forgotten Hilary Clinton trying to tell Osborn what he could not cut as it wasn't in US interests.

[nwhyte]

There was no way he could accept a treaty change that in any way transferred additional powers to the EU

He wasn't actually being asked to do this.

In the current mood, we could have a referendum on whether or not the EU should give every UK citizen £1,000, paid for by the Bundesbank, and it would still fail because it has the letters "EU" in it.

I certainly agree with you on that.

Ireland will have to have a referendum, and there seems little chance of the Irish people voting to give Brussels or Berlin veto powers over the Irish budget.

Essentially this has already happened, with last year's bailout and this year's election in which people voted for parties that accepted it rather than those who opposed it. Anyway I suspect an Irish referendum - if it happens - will be fought on the grounds of entrenching balanced budgets, since that is what was actually agreed to, and it's quite difficult to argue against that.

[drplokta]

He wasn't actually being asked to do this.

My understanding is that the treaty places new limits on the deficits and budgets of all signatories, not just the Eurozone members. Is that not correct?

[nwhyte]

No. What was agreed is a system that would be compulsory for eurozone members and opt-in for the rest. (Check the summit statement, para 7 and then the concluding sentence).

[nwhyte]

Wanna bet? (In euros!)

[drplokta]

I can find text in the link that says that it's not necessary for non-Euro members to sign (as the UK has not done), but not that none of the provisions apply to them even if they do sign. And the Guardian says "At least 23 – and possibly 26 out of 27 – states agree to bind themselves legally to balance their budgets, under the jurisdiction of the European court of justice and with deficit reduction programmes to be agreed with the European commission. More: for the 17 eurozone members, there'll be automatic sanctions if their deficit goes above 3%."

[nwhyte]

I see what you mean. I was being a bit technical, in that the treaty as such has not yet been concluded; what was signed on Friday morning was a declaration of intent, rather than a legally binding document. The other 26 now get to go away and work on it, but nothing has yet been signed away and the non-euro-users, as far as I can tell, can still be in the negotiations and then opt out at the end, unlike the UK which has opted out right at the start and therefore won't be in the negotiations.

[drplokta]

Would it not have been even worse for the UK's reputation for Cameron to agree to negotiate and then pull the rug out after the final form of the treaty had been concluded on the assumption that it would be a full EU treaty signed by all 27 members? Because there's no way he could possibly sign any treaty that might emerge. And the other EU members should be fully aware of that.

I suppose that Ireland could have given him some cover, since once their referendum fails there will be no need for other potential signatories to actually ratify it, and it will have to go back to the drawing board anyway.