drplokta: (Default)
[personal profile] drplokta
I've been reflecting on my proposal for making the Hugos less gameable. I think the principle is correct, that the number of nominees should automatically increase in categories where an algorithm detects slate-like behaviour. I now favour reducing the number of nominations per nominator to four, and having between five and ten nominees per category. That would prevent any two slates from taking over a category, assuming the algorithm increased the number of nominees to ten for that category (unless they were very well-organised in getting a large number of nominators nominating different subsets of the slate, which would at least remove all deniability about what they were doing).

But I don't think my algorithm for detecting slates is optimal. The problem is that the numbers that stand out as a slate in categories like Best Novella and Best Short Story would look perfectly normal in Best Dramatic Presentation: Long Form or Best Professional Artist, because there are many fewer eligible candidates, and so the most popular ones inevitably get more nominations.

So I'm after a piece of data that's not in the posted summaries. How many items in total were nominated in each category in previous years, especially 2013 and 2014, going all the way down to items that received only a single nomination (although it would also be good to know the number that got five or more nominations)? Does anyone have access to that data, and are they able to share it?

(no subject)

Date: 2015-04-20 09:36 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] pauldormer.livejournal.com
I still have all the nomination statistics for 2005 on my computer, or is that too historic?

For instance, I see that 230 novels were nominated in total in 2005 (although not all were eligible) and 93 received just one nomination and 36 just two.

(no subject)

Date: 2015-04-20 11:58 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] pauldormer.livejournal.com
I used an Access database to count the nominations and I still have that. Should only take a few minutes to write a query that counts how many works got x nominations, export that to a spreadsheet and store the spreadsheets on a shared drive somewhere. Is that the sort of thing you want? (In a previous life, I was a certified Access programmer, but counting the nominations was the last substantial programming I ever did.)

(no subject)

Date: 2015-04-21 09:38 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] pauldormer.livejournal.com
I've produced spreadsheets for the four written fiction categories and put them on Googledrive. Is this the sort of thing you're interested in?

https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B8jcg91oruibeWhKa1c1SEpKeEk&usp=sharing

(no subject)

Date: 2015-04-20 12:24 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] despotliz.livejournal.com
The 2013/2014 nomination data has a table with this information in them at the end, I think? In 2013 it's called people/works, in 2014 I think the column for entries is the equivalent data. I'm not sure how good historical data is any more, but the 2009 nomination stats has the total number of things nominated and they are also unusually detailed because they list all nominees down to 5 nominations, rather than 5%.

(no subject)

Date: 2015-04-20 12:47 pm (UTC)
ext_13495: (Default)
From: [identity profile] netmouse.livejournal.com
I am not sure why you want to try to 'detect' a slate looking only at the nominations for a single category. All the statistics in the nominations are available. The program can compare nomination patterns between entire ballots and determine whether or not some are more identical than is statistically probable using similar algorithms to how they detect cheating on tests. The problem is comparable-- you want to detect whether someone is just copying someone else's answers or are using their own thoughts as input. Once the system has detected identical ballots it can then figure out what percentage of all nominating ballots in each category is on those identical ballots and increase the number of nominees accordingly.

(no subject)

Date: 2015-05-01 11:22 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jamesb.livejournal.com
Have you come any closer to something you could propose, or be happy with?

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